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Posted on: February 2, 2011 6:23 pm by small image

I have confirmed at least some of the culprits of Umineko no Naku Koro ni. (I have only read episodes 1-6; I am currently re-reading episodes 1-4 through the ps3 port).

Be warned: possible spoilers ahead, given that I’m right. My logic will be purely on the events of episodes one through four.

My logic is simple. Take a look at the chessboard above. There are 17 characters (Kinzo not included, being dead at the start of all games).

The characters are represented as follows:

Male characters: Blue pieces.

Female charcters: Red pieces.

Knights- Rudolf/Kyrie (Battler is blue king)
Castles- Eva/Hideyoshi
Bishops- Natsuhi/Kraus
(Red) King/Queen- Maria/Rosa

Servents, Nanjo, and Children (minus Maria/Battler) are all Pawns.

Picture above represents situation following third twilight: read below for details as to what happened.

So, in the first twilight, Rudolf/Kyrie, Eva/Hideyoshi, and Natuhi/Kraus are all killed, and their deaths cannot be faked (even if not guaranteed by red) because their faces are clearly visable.

In the second twilight Jessica/Kanon are killed (Jessica was dead with visual confirmation, Kanon’s death being confirmed in red). It should be noted that Kanon fights against one of Beatrice’s Goats (Gohda = Goats most likely).

Then, the third twilight occurs. Rosa kicks the servants+Nanjo out of the room, and Kumasawa/Nanjo die (although their deaths are not confirmed in red, there is no one left alive on the island to kill them and move their bodies from the room other than the servants).

So there you go. Rosa, Battler, George, and Maria were all together, and Battler, as the detective, guarantees they stayed with them the whole time. And the people dead so far were most definitely dead by either visual confirmation (with intact faces)  or red text! Therefore, the people who killed Kumasawa/Nanjo (and then lied about what happened afterwards) were: Gohda, Genji, and Shannon. These people are most definitely killers. George is a likely killer as well, although I haven’t cornered him yet at this point.

The fact that Kumasawa/Nanjo were staked as the 7th/8th twlilights does not matter. Genji, Gohda, Shannon, or maybe George (most likely Genji) could have easily stabbed the corpses in a proper location later on.

There are some obvious issues with my theory, which I would like to clear up now. That would be at the point following the 5th thru 8th twilights. The issue, simply, is that Gohda dies, as well as every other possible murderer (in my theory) except for Genji (and not including Maria, who, while cooperating with the culprit, is most likely incapable/unwilling to kill anyone [keep in mind the fantastical impression she has of witches]).

It is important to understand that some kind of disaster occurs that kills everyone on the island, REGARDLESS of how the murders play out. This is the reason for the fickleness of the golden witch, and is the thing that kills Battler in episode four. It is also the reason the police (at the end of episode one) find nothing except for Maria’s skull (or was it jaw bone?). Because of this disaster (which the killer(s) most likely know of), there is little/no reason the killers might kill each other off. Why? Remember what the killer’s goal is again. The killer’s (‘Beatrice’s’) goal is to scare Battler, because of a sin he committed in the past. By doing something that doesn’t make sense (killers killing each other off), they create a large amount of noise (as anyone else, not knowing of the upcoming disaster, cannot understand the REASON behind their actions [making chessboard thinking difficult]), making the mystery as to the identity of the killer deepen (and increase Battler’s fear).

Again, at midnight, a disaster of some sort occurs that kills the remaining members (Battler, Genji, Rosa, and Maria), so there’s no need for any murderers to be left alive (although based on my theory, one happens to be left).

If you have any issues with my theory, speak up. 😛 But I’ve been hunting this witch for awhile (I’ve played thru eps 1-4 3-5 times [forget exactly how many times]); I think I’m on the right track.

I came up with the idea of using a chessboard to represent the murders partway through episode two (during my ps3 playthrough, obviously). I’ll be doing a full coverage of episode three/four with the chessboard and (crummy) screenshots of the game.

Here’s some Bern audible fanservice as an extra: